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Dead Man Talking

                       WASHINGTON - NOVEMBER 17:  Newly elected House Republican leadership members, (L-R) Eric Cantor (R-OH), Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX), Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), current House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL), Rep. John Carter (R-TX) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) pause after singing happy birthday to Rep. Boehner during a news conference after the House Republican Conference elected its new leadership for the 110th Congress on Capitol Hill November 17, 2006 in Washington, DC.  House Republicans elected John Boehner (R-OH) as Minority Leader, Roy Blunt (R-MO) as Minority Whip, Adam Putnam (R-FL) as Conference Chair, Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI) as Policy Committee Chair, Kay Granger (R-TX) as Conference Vice Chair, John Carter (R-TX) as Conference Secretary and Tom Cole (R-OK) as NRCC Chairman.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Roy Blunt;Eric Cantor;Thaddeus McCotter;John Boehner;Adam Putnam;John Carter;Kay Granger From Getty Images.
McCain or Obama? Please, that is soooo last election. I'm voting for Obama but if McCain wins a part of me will be very happy. No, the elections I'm following are much more fun, the congressional elections. We have 435 elections in the house and a third of all Senators seats will up for grabs. All this year we have been told Republicans are going to lose big. Then mid-point this year they were going to lose very big. Now, with Bailout-gate every single Republican member (and a few Democrats) are screaming "Run for your political lives!!!" acting like extras in the film "Deep Impact" looking at the wave about to encompass them. Oh, dear.

Wall Street looks strong and put together compared with the fracturing coalitions and down right hostility within the Republican Party. Members calling each other names. Members lying about votes. If there are two men who have the most solid pink slips in America be assured they are John Boehner and Roy Blunt. With what is expected to be huge loses for the party come November and I have said time and time again I expect the house in particular to be the most bloody, Boehner and Blunt are going to be out of job in leadership positions. It's about time. Neither man should have been picked to begin with, the party needs fresh blood with new ideas less concerned about social issues and really focused and the economic and foreign policy of this country.

And be assured of this whoever the next President is, he will have a Democratic Senate and Democratic House for his entire first term. That is an absolute now. And don't think that bodes well for John McCain he's going down with the ship. It was and alwasy will be a mistake for him to tie himself down as a "conservative", he should have been fighting for what he believes truly. Fighting for Roe, gay marriage, ending torture, and off shore oil drilling. He should have been fighting for common sense taxation and aganist more tax cuts for the rich. No hard right conservative voted for him in the primary, but many would still if he had been true to himself a man not conservative as defined by the greatest minds of our generation Limbaugh and Ingraham but perhaps the humble ones like George Will, Barry Goldwater and Gerald Ford.
 
This party and it's members have become the living dead.
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When Free Markets Aren't Free

                                            
Conservatism has many virtues that I disagree with but none is more essential or generally more agreed upon then that little saying given to us by Ronald Reagan "We want less government". Less... what a funny little word. Republicans have created many more expansions in government, without even getting into social issues but in health care, education and almost every agency except protecting the enivorment.  Then they differ to business. President Bush's legacy to the country is his massive governmental aid to other counteries not in war but in peace. His spending of billions upon billions of dollars in Africa made the United States taxpayer responible not just for ill of their countrymen but also for the entire world.
 
But if there was one legacy Reagan gave us it was that for better or for worse, Republicans believed in free markets. It seems the hard right conservatives at which I'm often at odds with is the only group still left fighting aganist the prospect of $700 billion dollars going to help cherry picked companies who choose risky and bad investments hoping to make a dollar. I may be an Episcopalin, green loving, Obama voter but a part of me will always be a deep follower and believer in Ayn Rand.
 
This bailout is not smaller government, this bailout is not the Republican party, this bailout is not conservative. If this isn't liberalism nothing is. And the fact that a Republican President, Senators and House Members are all going along for the ride shows they do not believe in the free markets, they don't trust them and they're support for businesses instead of the market shows they are liberal wolves in conservative clothing working for a paycheck and not the American voter.
 
Business go out of business. It's why we respect a company like Coca-Cola which has been around since 1886. It takes work to not go out of business and if you put your money in high risk investment you either make it big or go home broke. Wall Street went home broke and then got the government to refund their lost cause.
 
This country has now become a casino, in which nobody loses except those who do not gamble.
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The Lost Eight

                                
 
Continuning the series about the lost eight senate seats, Republicans will face come November.
 
Alaska- The Ted Stevens Seat- Even with the pick of Alaskan governor Sarah Palin as McCain's VP, the Republican Party in Alaska is in shambles particularly on the national level. With both ethical and criminal charges on both Stevens and Young, Democrats seem posed to finally say enough and throw both of them out. There was hope that a Palin-protege Sean Parnell was going to beat Young in the primary but as of today that looks very doubtful. Everyone is wondering if Stevens will step down and who will be the Republican replacement. Most times though, be it with Mark Foley or Tom Delay, the opposing party wins a seat if the incumbent has an unethical cloud above it's head. With Mark Begich, a good canidate in a very good year expect him to pick up Alaska's Senate seat.
 
Virginia- The John Warner Seat- Out of all the Senate seats, this is the safest flip. Mark Warner is the perfect Virginia Democrat and will beat Jim Gilmore easily come November. With his solid performance and high popularity, he handed Governorship over to Tim Kaine. Many expected the wonderful Tom Davis to go for the seat but he wisely bowed out. Warner will win, the question will be will he help put Virginia in Obama's win catergory.
 
New Mexico- I feel so bad for this state, in the course of one year they have had their Governor try to become President. Their main Senator retire and all three of the congresspeople retire to fight for the retiring Senator's seat. A Heather Wilson-Tom Udall fight would have been interesting but since she lost to the much more unpopular Steve Pearce it seems sure to go to Udall. Both Udall cousins the other one being from Colorado will most likely win but Tom has it much easier. With Republicans bashing Latinos every chance they get they kill themselves in New Mexico with a 42.1% Latino population. That number is actually too low. Many Democrats believe they will be able to pick up Wilson's, Pearce's and Udall's seats leaving the state 3-0 Democrats.
 
North Carolina- The Elizabeth Dole Seat- I actually thought Dole would be able to hold her seat but now I'm predicting a win for Kay Hagan. While everyone talks about how popular Dole is she only won the state with 200,000 votes now she has a six year voting record and the most loyal Bush female Senator. Richard Burr won here 160,000 votes. With a extremely strong African American turnout, (they are 22% of the state) and a strong Democrat in Kay Hagan many conservative white Democrats will vote McCain and then vote Hagan. This state is still competive with the McCain-Obama fight with many expecting a close victory for McCain, the same will be true for Hagan.
 
Mississippi- Bush won the state by 19 pts.! Now many Republican insiders say McCain will win by 4 pts., a 15pt. drop in one of the most conservative states in the country. Again as with the North Carolina race, African American turnout will be crucial and Democrats have chosen a conservative as their candidate. With Ronny Musgrove, a former Governor needing only to get (this is according to Republicans) 4% of McCain supporters to vote for a conservative white Democrat with high name recogination. He should be able to do it and have everyone shocked to see Senator Musgrove (D-MS) on C-SPAN.
 
The Last One- I don't know who will be the last winning seat for the Democrats. The Norm Coleman seat? Gordon Smith? Susan Collins? Mitch McConnell? the now retiring Chuck Hagel's seat? Or even Jim Inhofe?!? Yes the Democrats have the chance according to pollsters to take up to take up to 13 seats. Expecting 5 to remain safe, seems conservative to me. All they need is big Democratic turnout in blue-Obama states to kick Rockfeller Republicans out. Or a state to just turn on one of it's own like with Jim Talent in Missouri. My best guess would be the Inhofe seat (I've got to predict something weird) with a strong conservative Democrat Andrew Rice who is young, good looking and has a great personal story to tell in a conservative Democrat state expect the unexpected with him.
 
I know I could be completly off with my predictions but it's fun to guess anyway. Some seats I want Republicans to keep others I want them to lose but either way I be glued to my computer to watch the numbers come in the congressional and senate races both of which have more power than either McCain or Obama come January.
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Republicans Will Lose 8 Senate Seats

                                            

 

I know how much the presidential election is everyone's focus but obviously it's important to realize that we'll be electing a new Senate and House as well. Republicans will lose another 24 house seats, if I'm right and eight, yes, eight Senate seats. Let's see the data of the first two seats that will be lost by the Republicans.

The Sure Losers

John Sununu- New Hampshire took a sharp blue turn in 2006. Looking at the 2002 election, in which Sununu beat his returning opponent Jeanne Shaheen by less than 20,000 votes. Kerry beat Bush here by 9,000 votes in 2004. Then in 2006, John Lynch (D) the Governor who won in 2004 by just 14,000 votes won in 2006 with 200,000 votes. An increase of 186,000 votes in just two years. It should be noted that Judd Gregg (R) won easily in 2004 aganist a no money Democrat with over 200,000 votes. Many now believe Gregg will retire as Democrats will certainly finance a strong campaign aganist him in 2010. In 2006, Jeb Bradley(R-1st) lost by 5,000 votes after winning in 2004 with 85,000 votes. His opponent had less than 30% the money aganist him. Charles Bass lost by 14,000 votes after winning just two years earlier with 65,000 votes. All these numbers mean that New Hampshire will go blue come November most likely in the Presiential Race (many liberations will vote Barr or Paul hurting McCain and helping Obama) (Note: I do not think third party candidates matter much but New Hampshire is one state were they do, Nader won the state for Bush in 2000)  but almost certianly in the Senate Race. It's a shame Sununu is a good Senator one whom I endorse.
 
Colorado- The Wayne Allard seat. With Allard retiring Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer have been nominees. Schaffer who lost the Republican primary to Pete Coors who was a  much stronger candidate than Schaffer. Coors then went on to lose to Ken Salazar. Colorado is by no means solid blue, it's one of the most "purple" states out there. Bush won here with 100,000 votes in 2004 but lost 50,000 votes from 2000. Bill Owens (R) who won in 2002 by 400,000 votes gave the governorship over to Bill Ritter (D) who won by 270,000 votes. Even with Republican favored gerrymangering the Democrats have 4 congressman to the Republicans with 3. Many expect Musgrove to lose her seat giving them a 5-2 advantage, the best possible outcome for Democrats in the state.With Udall doing well, he won't win in a landslide but he will win. Allard only won with 51% in 2002 (a high point for Republicans) with a bad candidate which Schaffer is, the Dems have this one.
 
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Marine Parenting

First of all even though I am an Obama supporter, I am so excited about Sarah Palin being the VP choice of McCain. She is a brillant wonderful woman who I personally like very much. While I think at the last moments, he should have picked Carly Fiorina, Palin was a far better choice than either Lieberman, Pawlently, and espically Romney. Good job, Senator!

I also have a personal note to mention: I'm an uncle! My sister gave birth to a beautiful  baby boy, named Jake, (actually name Jacob, but Jake is so cool). I love that name. He is as cute as can be.

Now for the acutal post:


For far too long in America we have been told that we can have it all. In the media and culture many people are living their lives with far too much going on. Many people talk about the juggling act, Americans do which leads to the obvious conclusion that if you juggle long a ball will eventually fall. I say all of this with the news of Sarah Palin's daughter being pregnant being in my mind.

My father has been out of the picture for a long time and as the oldest child I have a very, very close relationship with my siblings. I love them so much. I also steped in as the father role, trying to protect them from a world that seeks to harm them far too often. So when my 17 year old sister got pregnant at 16, I took it hard. I took it as I know Sarah Palin did, as a moral failure not on our family members but on ourselves.

Teenagers are teenagers and if you have a perfect one count your blessings. They don't think of the long term consequences and we as parents and/or guardians need to realize it. I told my sister that if she needed any birth control at all I would buy it for her no questions asked no secrets told. She told me she was a virgin. I believed her. She lied. Why? Because kids lie, good kids, bad kids. It's ok because we love them no matter what they do. Often times they want to live up to our expectations and lie to keep an image that isn't true.
 
We as a nation have become lazy in our parenting and I say this not to say that we are lazy but that we don't put our child first. Often times, we put our careers as our primary focus. And we've allowed ourselves to become the "cool parent" instead of just a "parent" and all the negative conantation that implies.
 
We need to get back to traditional parenting, such as forbiding our kids from dating until age 16. And when they do date to make sure it is in a public place, that they are with family at home, and that a chaparone is with them at all times except when in a public place. All old fashioned, all out of date, all sure fire ways to keep your child for becoming pregnant.
 
And if all of this seems like to much, or not possible putting your dating children on birth control is a step every parent should take. Pills are an option but I'm more in favor of the shot that makes you infertile for three months. Now people will say shouldn't I trust my daughter, I know she is good. I trusted my sister, a girl who is one of the sweetest people I know, who I taught Sunday School with for years. No, you can't.
 
We need to take back parenting. In a modern time it's time to turn back to old fashioned dating values and to use modern medicine to make sure we finally end the plague of teenage pregnancy.
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