Posted by
Young Republican on Monday, November 10, 2008 4:47:30 PM
This is why I think I am sick. I can't enjoy anything and I always have to think about the next election. So to claim to be the first and/or the most in need of a social life. Here is my 2010 forecast...terrible if you are a Republican.
When it comes to house races it would look like we won't see much of a change. Only four of the Democrats who won election in 2006 lost in 2008. All of them were from Republican districts who couldn't hang on during a presidential campaign cycle. Everyone else did better. So almost all of the 06 winners, 26 out of 30 will remain in 2010. Of the 21 Democratic winners in 2008, only a few will lose. It is hard to win in Republican leaning districts during a Presidential campaign. But a few will lose after getting a voting record. Lastly, with so many gerrymangered districts the ability for Democratic victory gets slimmer. Instead a lot of focus will go on keeping Democratic governors particularly with redistricting happening with their terms.
Democrats will get a free pass and play offense in 2010 with the US Senate allowing them to play defense with the Governorships and US House races. In the US Senate, only one Democrat will face even a slight Mary Landreiu challenge and that is Ken Salazar from Colorado a state that is turning blue not red. He should keep that seat. Bayh, Boxer, Dodd, Dorgan, Feingold, Inouye, Leahy, Lincoln, Mikulski, Murrary, Obama, Reid, Schumer, and Wyden will all keep their seats. Only Reid could be in trouble if the public really turns on Democrats. I do not see that happening.
Bennett (R-Utah) will keep his seat but might be retiring. Kit Bond's seat is one to watch if he retires it becomes toss up if not it could turn like the Talent-McCaskill race did in 06. Brownback will keep his seat unless Kathleen Sebilus challenges him in which it becomes toss up but she seems to have "Cabinet" written all over her. Jim Bunning's seat is toss up with a Democratic advantage if he retires, Rep. Yarmouth would seem to have the edge if he takes the bait. Sen. Burr's (NC) seat is in toss up, if Gov. Easley challenges him expect Easley to win. Coburn will remain safe most likely although he won by less than stellar in 04. Crapo (Idaho) is safe. DeMint is probably safe. Grassley (Iowa) is probably safe but Iowa has been turning blue and it's one to keep an eye on for any movement. Judd Gregg (NH) won with 66% but with New Hampshire turning so blue so fast his seat is now in toss up. Isakson (Georgia) will most likely be safe although the Dems have a few candidates to make it interesting if they wanted. Watch for the special election to see Georgia's mood in Chambliss-Martin. Mel Martinez (R-Florida) seat is in toss up, with a good Democrat it goes to Democrat favored. McCain's seat is safe as long as he wants it but if he retires tired from the campaign it goes to toss up. Murkowski (R-Alaska) is slightly favored with what seems to be a strong Alaskan Republican party (Stevens re-elected?) but she could lose just as easily. Shelby's seat is safe. Specter (R-PA) would seem likely to retire in which the Democrats would win this seat but if he doesn't he would still have a tough fight in which he would only be slightly favored. John Thune would seem to be favored but with the right Democrat be it Daschle for a re-match or their US house member, it would go back to toss up. David Vitter (R-LA) seat seem's the most likely to be lost with him on the ticket for his sex scandal and a Christian south, put it at Dem. slightly favored. Last but not least, Voinovich would again seem likely to retire giving the Democrats another seat but if he doesn't again he will have to fight for re-election.
Forecast: Democrats would look likely to gain four seats from today but at worse with an extremly unpopular Obama which I don't see happening would lose only 1 if that. So it will be 61 Democrats-39 Republicans in 2010 if I am right. Which sadly I am far too often.